Table of contents
US retail social commerce sales will surpass USD 100 billion in 2026, and TikTok Shop's slice alone - USD 23.41 billion - already outsells Target, Costco, Best Buy or Kroger's individual ecommerce businesses. That's the scale shift behind "social commerce" in 2026: it has stopped being a feature bolted onto social apps and become a retail channel with its own leaderboard.
Key Takeaways
- US retail social commerce sales will surpass USD 100 billion in 2026.
- Annual US social commerce sales will grow by nearly USD 50 billion more over the next three years.
- TikTok Shop will reach USD 23.41 billion in US ecommerce sales in 2026.
- That's a 48% increase year over year for TikTok Shop alone.
- TikTok Shop's 2026 revenue exceeds Target, Costco, Best Buy or Kroger's ecommerce business.
- 51% of US social buyers will shop on TikTok in 2026.
- Facebook still holds the largest total US social buyer base, via Marketplace and Shops.
- 58% of US adults have purchased due to an influencer endorsement.
- Social media creator revenue will grow 16.2% in 2026, to USD 20.6 billion.
- Later processes USD 2.4 billion in annualized GMV through creator-led commerce.
- Instagram Reels views for luxury brands grew 234% year over year in Q2 2025.
- TikTok Shop generated over USD 500 million across four days of Black Friday-Cyber Monday 2025.
- Shoppers made purchases at a nearly 50% higher rate during that event, YoY.
- Shoppers tuned into over 760,000 livestream sessions during that same event.
- Those livestreams drew 1.6 billion views across the four-day event.
The channel crosses USD 100 billion
eMarketer's 2026 social commerce forecast puts US retail social commerce sales above USD 100 billion for the first time this year, and projects annual sales will climb by nearly USD 50 billion more over the following three years as AI shopping agents and creator-led formats mature. That trajectory turns social platforms from a discovery layer that sends traffic elsewhere into a checkout destination in their own right.
Social commerce at a glance, 2026
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| US retail social commerce sales, 2026 | Over USD 100 billion | eMarketer |
| Projected 3-year growth beyond 2026 | Nearly USD 50 billion more | eMarketer |
| TikTok Shop US ecommerce sales, 2026 | USD 23.41 billion | eMarketer |
| TikTok Shop YoY growth | 48% | eMarketer |
| Social buyers who will shop on TikTok, 2026 | 51% | eMarketer |
| Creator revenue growth, 2026 | 16.2%, to USD 20.6 billion | eMarketer |
TikTok Shop is now a retailer, not a feature
eMarketer's FAQ on social commerce forecasts TikTok Shop will reach USD 23.41 billion in US ecommerce sales in 2026, a 48% increase year over year. That figure alone would make TikTok Shop a bigger US ecommerce business than Target, Costco, Best Buy or Kroger individually. TikTok's recommendation algorithm is built for product discovery and impulse purchases, which is precisely the low-consideration, trend-driven category where a feed-native checkout wins.
Facebook still has the biggest buyer base - a different kind of win
Despite TikTok Shop's growth rate, eMarketer's forecast finds Facebook maintains the largest total US social buyer base, powered by Facebook Marketplace and Facebook Shops, which let businesses run a digital storefront with in-app checkout. That's a different metric than TikTok's dollar volume: Facebook wins on the number of people who buy something through the platform at all; TikTok is winning on how fast one specific segment - trend-driven, creator-influenced purchases - is growing inside it. 51% of US social buyers will shop on TikTok this year, which is a majority of social buyers, but still behind Facebook's total reach.
| Platform | Where it wins | 2026 evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Largest total social buyer base | Marketplace + Shops in-app checkout | |
| TikTok Shop | Fastest dollar growth, impulse/discovery | USD 23.41B, +48% YoY |
| Steady share gain via visual discovery | Reels views for luxury brands +234% YoY | |
| TikTok (overall) | Majority reach among social buyers | 51% of US social buyers will shop there |
The creator layer underneath the platform numbers
None of this growth is happening without creators driving discovery. 58% of US consumers aged 18 and older have purchased a product because of an influencer endorsement, per the National Advertising Division. eMarketer forecasts social media creator revenue overall will grow 16.2% this year to USD 20.6 billion. Later, a creator-commerce platform, reports processing USD 2.4 billion in annualized gross merchandise value specifically through creator-led commerce - evidence that the influencer layer has become a measurable revenue channel, not just a brand-awareness line item.
| Creator-economy signal (2026) | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Consumers 18+ who purchased due to an influencer endorsement | 58% | National Advertising Division |
| Social media creator revenue growth | 16.2%, to USD 20.6B | eMarketer |
| Later's annualized GMV via creator-led commerce | USD 2.4 billion | Later, cited by eMarketer |
| Instagram Reels views for luxury brands, YoY | +234% (Q2 2025) | EMARKETER Industry KPIs |
Peak-event evidence: Black Friday-Cyber Monday 2025
The clearest proof that TikTok Shop's numbers reflect real transaction behavior, not just forecasting optimism, came during Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025: TikTok Shop generated over USD 500 million in sales across the four-day window, with a nearly 50% year-over-year increase in the share of shoppers who actually made a purchase. Shoppers tuned into over 760,000 livestream shopping sessions during the event, racking up 1.6 billion views combined - live commerce, not static product listings, drove the volume.
| BFCM 2025 signal (TikTok Shop) | Figure |
|---|---|
| Sales across the 4-day event | Over USD 500 million |
| YoY increase in purchasing shoppers | ~50% |
| Livestream shopping sessions | 760,000+ |
| Total livestream views | 1.6 billion |
Creators are converting into checkout, not just content
Later, a creator-commerce platform, reported surpassing USD 2.4 billion in annual gross merchandise value run rate in late 2025 - up more than USD 1 billion since 2024 - alongside USD 250 million in cumulative creator payouts. Creator-driven content on Later and its Mavely affiliate network generated more than USD 50 million in sales during Black Friday and Cyber Monday alone, with Mavely's community of over 180,000 creators posting more than 100% year-over-year GMV growth. That's a second, independent data point confirming the same shift the TikTok Shop numbers show: creator commerce has crossed from an experimental budget line into a measurable, checkout-attached revenue channel.
| Later / Mavely creator-commerce signal | Figure |
|---|---|
| Annual GMV run rate (late 2025) | USD 2.4 billion (+$1B+ since 2024) |
| Cumulative creator payouts | USD 250 million |
| BFCM 2025 sales via Later/Mavely creators | Over USD 50 million |
| Mavely creator community size | 180,000+ creators |
| Mavely creator GMV growth, YoY | 100%+ |
The global backdrop: social buying is now a supermajority behavior
DataReportal's Digital 2026 Global Overview Report, produced with Meltwater and We Are Social, counts 5.66 billion social media user identities worldwide - 68.7% of the global population, up 4.8% in the year to October 2025. More than two in three people on Earth now use social media monthly, which is the sheer base the social commerce numbers above are converting against. Regionally, Bain & Company's e-Conomy SEA 2025 report, produced with Google and Temasek, finds video commerce now accounts for 25% of total ecommerce GMV across Southeast Asia, whose digital economy is on track to surpass USD 300 billion in GMV - a preview of where AI-driven, video-first social checkout is likely headed in other regions next.
| Global backdrop signal (2026) | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Worldwide social media user identities | 5.66 billion (68.7% of population) | DataReportal / Kepios |
| Growth in social identities, YoY | +4.8% (259M added) | DataReportal / Kepios |
| Southeast Asia digital economy GMV trajectory | On track to surpass USD 300 billion | Bain / Google / Temasek |
| Video commerce share of SEA ecommerce GMV | 25% | Bain / Google / Temasek |
Holiday season data confirms social is now a purchase channel, not just discovery
Sprout Social's Q3 2026 Pulse Survey, fielded with the research firm Glimpse across 2,286 social media users, found social media tied with physical stores as the top source for holiday gift discovery, both at 46% - and social media rises to 54% among Gen Z specifically. More tellingly, over half of respondents say they're open to buying directly inside a social app (TikTok Shop, Facebook Marketplace, Instagram Checkout), and 78% expect to use social media for gift-buying at least as much as they did in 2025, with 28% planning to use it more. The single biggest purchase trigger is a promo code shared by a brand or influencer, at 30%.
| Holiday social shopping signal (Sprout Social, 2026) | Figure |
|---|---|
| Social media as top source for gift discovery | 46% (54% for Gen Z) |
| Plan to use social for gift discovery at least as much as 2025 | 78% |
| Plan to use social media more for gift discovery | 28% |
| Promo codes as the top purchase trigger | 30% |
| Survey sample size | 2,286 social media users |
Facebook's underlying ad engine is still growing fast
Facebook's ability to keep the largest social buyer base isn't happening on a stagnant platform. Meta's own Q2 2026 earnings release reported advertising revenue of USD 59.363 billion for the quarter, up from USD 46.563 billion a year earlier - roughly 27% growth - across its Family of Apps, which includes Facebook and Instagram. That underlying growth is what funds the continued investment in Marketplace, Shops and Reels commerce features this page has already covered.
Overlay one more seasonal data point: the National Retail Federation forecasts Americans will spend an average of USD 890 per person on holiday gifts, food and decorations this season - the second-highest figure in the survey's 23-year history - even as 85% of consumers anticipate higher prices from tariffs. Social commerce is competing for a piece of that spend at the exact moment household budgets are under the most scrutiny.
| Facebook/Meta and holiday-spend context (2026) | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Meta Family of Apps advertising revenue, Q2 2026 | USD 59.363 billion (+27% YoY) | Meta Q2 2026 earnings |
| Average planned holiday spend per person, US | USD 890 | NRF / Prosper Insights |
| Consumers anticipating higher prices from tariffs | 85% | NRF / Prosper Insights |
What this means for a 2026 social commerce plan
Facebook is still the safest bet for reach; TikTok Shop is the fastest-growing dollar channel and the one built for discovery-driven, creator-influenced purchases; Instagram is the platform gaining quietly through visual, higher-consideration categories like luxury. Building a plan around only one of the three misses the segment each platform actually wins. Our performance creative team can help map creative formats to the right platform before budget moves, our growth marketing practice can model the checkout funnel end to end, and we're glad to talk through the mix for your category specifically.
Frequently Asked Questions
How big is social commerce in the US in 2026?
eMarketer forecasts US retail social commerce sales will surpass USD 100 billion in 2026 for the first time, and projects annual US social commerce sales will grow by nearly USD 50 billion more over the following three years as creator-led shopping and AI shopping assistants mature.
How much of that is TikTok Shop specifically?
TikTok Shop is forecast to reach USD 23.41 billion in US ecommerce sales in 2026, a 48% increase year over year, per eMarketer. That would give TikTok Shop a larger US ecommerce business than Target, Costco, Best Buy or Kroger individually - a genuinely new category of retailer built entirely inside a social feed.
Which platform actually has the most social buyers?
Facebook, not TikTok. eMarketer's forecast finds Facebook maintains the largest total US social buyer base through Facebook Marketplace and Facebook Shops, even though TikTok Shop is growing fastest and generates a comparable or larger dollar volume. More than half of US social buyers (51%) will shop on TikTok in 2026, but Facebook's buyer count is still bigger in absolute terms.
How much does influencer marketing actually drive purchases?
58% of US consumers aged 18 and older have purchased a product because of an influencer endorsement, according to the National Advertising Division. On the supply side, EMARKETER forecasts social media creator revenue will grow 16.2% in 2026 to USD 20.6 billion, and Later reports processing USD 2.4 billion in annualized gross merchandise value through creator-led commerce specifically.
Did TikTok Shop actually perform during Black Friday 2025?
Yes. TikTok Shop generated over USD 500 million in sales across the four days of Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025, with a nearly 50% year-over-year increase in shoppers making a purchase. Shoppers tuned into over 760,000 livestream sessions during the event, totaling 1.6 billion views, per eMarketer's reporting.
Sources
eMarketer - The Next Era of Social Commerce
eMarketer - FAQ on Social Commerce: How Creators and Platforms Power Shopping in 2026
eMarketer - US Social Commerce Forecast 2026
Later - Later Hits $2.4B GMV, $250M in Creator Payouts
DataReportal / Kepios - Digital 2026 Global Overview Report
Bain & Company - e-Conomy SEA 2025 (with Google and Temasek)
Sprout Social - Q3 2026 Pulse Survey Analysis
Meta - Meta Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
National Retail Federation - Winter Holiday FAQs
